The occupation of Syria by rebel groups has had a negative impact on market sentiment.
Gold and oil prices rose in early trade on Monday after geopolitical tensions increased in the Middle East.
Hayat al-Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), designated as a terrorist group by the United States, captured the cities of Homs, Hama and Aleppo. HTS chief Abu Mohammed al-Golani said he wanted to make Syria “a beacon for the Islamic nation”. The country’s former President Bashar al-Assad fled to Russia.
Concerns that events in Syria could leak into neighboring oil-producing countries sent Brent crude prices higher and safe-haven demand for gold.
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“While actions taken by OPEC+ could potentially push the market higher than previously expected, ultimately, the group will still have to accept lower prices,” ING said. “OPEC+ faces the ongoing issue of rising non-OPEC supply and disappointing demand growth, largely driven by China.”
ING Storehouse said it now forecasts ICE Brent to reach a reasonable $69/bbl by 2025. With the upcoming OPEC+ meeting its voluntary manufacturing cuts behind schedule, the estimate has been raised to $71/bbl.
“The fact that the market will still be in surplus means there is still downside to prices from current levels, especially in 4Q25,” it added.
JPMorgan expects strong central deposit gold buying to continue supporting gold prices. It also sees the US dollar as “structurally overvalued”. Thus, any investment in gold will diversify the investment in dollars.
“Expectations of persistent global uncertainties are driving demand for gold as a safe-haven asset, supported by low interest rates and continued central bank demand,” the deposit noted.
